Weekly Forecasts Special Issue

The collapse of the Kremlin

1. The global economic indicators suggest a (somewhat) recessionary outlook.

2. The Black Swan scenarios for the collapse of the Kremlin.

   1. Scenario 1: Assassination/sudden death of President Putin.

   2. Scenario 2: Coup.

3. Are there signs of an impending regime change in Russia?

In this special issue of our Weekly Forecasts, we address the collapse of the regime of President Putin in Russia. This is something some Westerners hope for, because the removal of President Putin from power has been presented to us as a road to peace in Ukraine. Our analysis of the two most likely scenarios for a regime change in Russia, the assassination/death of President Putin and a coup d’etat, leads to completely opposite conclusions.

The removal of President Putin by force would most likely lead to a major power-struggle within the Kremlin. As it is the agenda of the European Coalition for War and the neocon faction of the U.S. to break up Russia, the removal of President Putin would start a path where the existence of the Russian state would become threatened. Our sequencing of the events implies that the outcome of both scenarios would be retaliation with nuclear weapons against Western nations and Ukraine. Our analysis thus acts as a dire warning to all powers seeking to undermine the existence of the Russian state.

I also need to add a personal note. As a teenager, I lived through the uncertainty and fear created by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The most pressing worry in Finland was who controls the vast nuclear arsenal of the defunct USSR. The analysis presented herein confirms my fears that the collapse of the Kremlin could very well lead to nuclear war, a mutual assured destruction, known as MAD. I hope that the leaders engaged in this cycle of escalation, against Russia, heed the warning of our analysis.

We start this report by briefly summarizing the message of the economic indicators across the globe. They present a mixed picture but hint at a global slowdown approaching, supporting our earlier view.

Tuomas

Economic indicators

United States; September (August)

Richmond Fed manufacturing: -17 (-7)

Empire State manufacturing: -8.7 (11.9)

Dallas Fed manufacturing: 5.2 (15.3)

Kansas Fed manufacturing: 4 (1)

Manufacturing PMI:¹ 52.0 (53.0)

Services PMI: 53.9 (54.5)

Consumer Confidence; August (July):² 97.4 (98.7)

U.S. leading indicator; August (July):³ 98.4 (98.9)

Eurozone; September (August)

Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (50.7)

Services PMI: 51.4 (50.5)

Germany ifo Business Climate:⁴ 87.7 (89.0)

China; September (August)

Caixin (RatingDog) manufacturing PMI: 51.2 (50.5)

NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (49.4)

Caixin (RatingDog) services PMI: 52.9 (53.0)

The economic indicators continue to convey a mixed message. The main manufacturing indexes declined in most of the regional surveys we follow in the U.S.; however, new orders decreased in all regions, with a sharp decline observed in some areas, such as New York. The manufacturing purchaser’s managers index (PMI) of the Eurozone also fell to contraction, while the ifo Business Climate saw a notable decline for the first time since H1 2024. However, the manufacturing activity in China saw a minor improvement.

The aforementioned indicators represent the initial (weak) signs of the impending global slowdown, which we have been warning about since May (see the update). Too much should not be read into them yet, especially as our forecasts currently indicate China’s debt stimulus to pick up again, which would provide some lift, especially to the European economy.

Scenarios for the collapse of the Kremlin

Many Westerners are currently hoping that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, President of Russia, will lose power. To many, this would equal peace in Ukraine and the removal of the threat of war over Europe. In this scenario analysis, we show that, while it is possible that the disappearance of President Putin could lead to the aforementioned result, the likelihood of alternative scenarios dominates.

We address two scenarios:

1. The assassination/sudden death of President Putin.

2. Coup in the Kremlin.

The scenarios are naturally rather speculative, but as always, we ground them in both historical facts and logic. Let’s start by recapping who President Putin actually is.